TGEProbable airdrop
CompletedConfirmedBNB Chain
Probable launched a points program in Jan 2026, then was acquired by Predict.fun in March. Official conversion: weeks 1–6 at 1:1, weeks 7–10 at 1:10, plus 2× USDT fee refunds with a 90-day account-link window. DefiTier already grades Predict.fun; this page stops the watchlist ghost.
Farm score
40/ 100 · Tier POST
Token already launched — trade it for liquidity or post-TGE rewards, not for an airdrop.
Reward size & density30%42
No aggregator volume feed — scored against open interest at 1.2x turnover
Entry window20%5
Program is over — nothing left to accrue
Airdrop credibility20%29
Acquired by Predict.fun (announced 2026-03-04). Probable Points convert to Predict Points; farm Predict.fun, not this shell.
Room to farm20%88
No live turnover data
Fee efficiency5%75
No explicit taker fee — your cost is the spread, which is wide on event books
Capital momentum5%50
No 7d open-interest history
Live metrics
Volume 24h
n/a
24h delta collecting
Open interest
$208K
— 24h · — 7d
Daily turnover
—
Volume ÷ open interest. Above 4x signals farmer churn.
Reward pool est.
Undisclosed
No consensus
Funding APR
—
No funding feed for this venue
Program
- Link accounts per Predict.fun’s migration post if you still have unconverted points.
- New flow belongs on Predict.fun, not probable.markets.
Risks
- Migration window can expire; leftover Probable UI is not a second farm.
- Do not open a new wallet here expecting a fresh airdrop.
Probable airdrop FAQ
Does Probable have a confirmed airdrop?+
Probable is currently at the "Completed" stage with confirmed credibility. Acquired by Predict.fun (announced 2026-03-04). Probable Points convert to Predict Points; farm Predict.fun, not this shell.
How much volume is competing on Probable right now?+
Probable is not yet covered by aggregator volume feeds, so the tier is computed from its editorial inputs against a conservative volume assumption. Open interest and deltas appear here as soon as the venue is indexed.
What does farming Probable cost in fees?+
At 0 bps taker, pushing $100,000 of volume round trip costs roughly $0. Trading through a referral link usually reduces that, which directly improves the cost per point.
Is Probable Tier POST?+
Probable scores 40/100, which places it in Tier POST. Token already launched — trade it for liquidity or post-TGE rewards, not for an airdrop.
Keep going
Farming Probable is one line in a portfolio
The screener ranks every venue side by side, and the guides cover the mechanics of turning volume into allocation without taking market risk.